US Mid-Term Elections: End of Indo – US Nuclear Deal?
The long awaited verdict is finally out. This week’s US Congress midterm elections saw the Democrats won convincingly. They will control both the House and the Senate from next year. It is a return to controlling the Congress after the gap of 12 years. Democrats won the Senate with a clear majority of 51 seats against 49 seats won by the Republicans in a 100 seats Senate. Similarly, with 230 seats already been won in the House and led in two races, while Republicans won 196 seats and led in seven races, the most likely result in the 435 seats House would be a 232-203 majority for the Democrats.
The midterm elections became a referendum for President Bush and the voters have shown him the way. Every thing is different now for President Bush. The numbers above describe the changing balance in a new American Congress that will convene in January 2007. With the new composition in the Congress, there is possibility that the American foreign policies crafted out by President George W. Bush will be affected.
From Iraq war, the war on terror, North Korea’s nuclear issue to China policy, defeat by the Republicans means differently according to analysts. For Iraq war, it means a new approach to solve the Iraq quagmire has to be formulated sooner rather than later. The American public has become impatient and they want a change. On the war on terror and the North Korean nuclear issue, the rise of the Democrats will give hope to more dialogues and soliciting views rather than an emphasis on military intervention as favored by the conservative wing of the Republican Party.
On the other hand, according to David Zweig of Center on China’s Transnational Relations, Hong Kong, the Republican defeat means a weaker executive and a weaker executive means a weakening of America’s China policy. According to him, US – China relations do better when a President is strong, weak Presidents are no good for US – China relations.
These predictions and analyses, however, remain to be of a distant future. Even though there is now a change of guard in the American Congress, but there will be no change of policy overnight. The Democrats must take very cautious and step-by-step approach so as not to disappoint the voters who have cast their votes to reject President Bush. One thing is, however, of a very near future: the future of Indo – US nuclear agreement mooted in July 2005 and signed in March this year in New Delhi.
Will this new American Congress end the deal or will it help the deal to go through?
The Indo – US nuclear agreement has gone through various stages of detailed legislative consideration within the US over the last 16 months. As of now, the proposed bill cleared by the House of Representatives last July has three more steps before closure. First, a vote in the full Senate; later, reconciliation of the language of the bill as passed by the House and the Senate; and finally a vote in both legislative chambers. With the Democrats now controlling the Congress and the fact that a vote on the deal has been stuck in the Senate for the last two sessions where the Republicans were the majority, there is now some caution in New Delhi about the immediate future of this important deal. The so-called ‘Lame-Duck’ session of the Congress, which commences next week, must work very hard if it wants to see this deal through.
Most analysts in India, however, believe that the deal will likely to go through. There are several reasons for this optimistic view.
First, the core of the agreement among the supporters of the deal is a conviction that a closer relationship with India in the early part of the 21st century is in the abiding American interest. The nuclear area that had become a bone of bitter contestation was innovatively re-arranged to become an area of co-operation, even while respecting US non-proliferation sensitivities.
Second, even though the Democrats gained control of the US Congress riding an anti-Bush wave and some key opponents of the deal, who have argued that it undermines global non-proliferation efforts, have been among the Democrats, there was about 80 per cent support in the various Congressional committees over the last few months. Senior Democrats like Senator John Kerry and Congressman Tom Lantos have expressed their strong supports throughout this period. Moreover, in the post Tuesday’s triumph, there is a positive gesture from some key Democrat lawmakers on the nuclear deal.
Thus it would be misleading to infer that the agreement with India is a purely Republican affair.
Third, the assurance by President Bush that getting the India-US nuclear deal through the Senate next week is a priority. US Ambassador to India David C. Mulford echoed this view and said on Thursday that there was every intention to get the deal legislation through next week. Even though the upcoming Lame Duck session is hard to predict and other bills could be a priority, but with the very strong bipartisan support that had been expressed for the deal in last 24 hours, the deal will likely to go through.
At the end, it remains to be seen how these positive factors will evolve and help the deal to go through in this coming week. But if the deal fails to get through this time, it does not mean the end of the road.
The first and the second reason above are enough to convince everyone that the deal will return for reconsideration to the new Congress in early 2007. The essence of the agreement, which envisages closer co-operation between the US and India will neither die nor be rejected by the new Democrat-dominated US Congress. To recall the words by Tom Lantos, “It is my strong hope that we can have the bill on the House floor in July, and then, with House passage, we will have opened a new era in United States-India relations.” The deal might just get delayed, perhaps.
The midterm elections became a referendum for President Bush and the voters have shown him the way. Every thing is different now for President Bush. The numbers above describe the changing balance in a new American Congress that will convene in January 2007. With the new composition in the Congress, there is possibility that the American foreign policies crafted out by President George W. Bush will be affected.
From Iraq war, the war on terror, North Korea’s nuclear issue to China policy, defeat by the Republicans means differently according to analysts. For Iraq war, it means a new approach to solve the Iraq quagmire has to be formulated sooner rather than later. The American public has become impatient and they want a change. On the war on terror and the North Korean nuclear issue, the rise of the Democrats will give hope to more dialogues and soliciting views rather than an emphasis on military intervention as favored by the conservative wing of the Republican Party.
On the other hand, according to David Zweig of Center on China’s Transnational Relations, Hong Kong, the Republican defeat means a weaker executive and a weaker executive means a weakening of America’s China policy. According to him, US – China relations do better when a President is strong, weak Presidents are no good for US – China relations.
These predictions and analyses, however, remain to be of a distant future. Even though there is now a change of guard in the American Congress, but there will be no change of policy overnight. The Democrats must take very cautious and step-by-step approach so as not to disappoint the voters who have cast their votes to reject President Bush. One thing is, however, of a very near future: the future of Indo – US nuclear agreement mooted in July 2005 and signed in March this year in New Delhi.
Will this new American Congress end the deal or will it help the deal to go through?
The Indo – US nuclear agreement has gone through various stages of detailed legislative consideration within the US over the last 16 months. As of now, the proposed bill cleared by the House of Representatives last July has three more steps before closure. First, a vote in the full Senate; later, reconciliation of the language of the bill as passed by the House and the Senate; and finally a vote in both legislative chambers. With the Democrats now controlling the Congress and the fact that a vote on the deal has been stuck in the Senate for the last two sessions where the Republicans were the majority, there is now some caution in New Delhi about the immediate future of this important deal. The so-called ‘Lame-Duck’ session of the Congress, which commences next week, must work very hard if it wants to see this deal through.
Most analysts in India, however, believe that the deal will likely to go through. There are several reasons for this optimistic view.
First, the core of the agreement among the supporters of the deal is a conviction that a closer relationship with India in the early part of the 21st century is in the abiding American interest. The nuclear area that had become a bone of bitter contestation was innovatively re-arranged to become an area of co-operation, even while respecting US non-proliferation sensitivities.
Second, even though the Democrats gained control of the US Congress riding an anti-Bush wave and some key opponents of the deal, who have argued that it undermines global non-proliferation efforts, have been among the Democrats, there was about 80 per cent support in the various Congressional committees over the last few months. Senior Democrats like Senator John Kerry and Congressman Tom Lantos have expressed their strong supports throughout this period. Moreover, in the post Tuesday’s triumph, there is a positive gesture from some key Democrat lawmakers on the nuclear deal.
Thus it would be misleading to infer that the agreement with India is a purely Republican affair.
Third, the assurance by President Bush that getting the India-US nuclear deal through the Senate next week is a priority. US Ambassador to India David C. Mulford echoed this view and said on Thursday that there was every intention to get the deal legislation through next week. Even though the upcoming Lame Duck session is hard to predict and other bills could be a priority, but with the very strong bipartisan support that had been expressed for the deal in last 24 hours, the deal will likely to go through.
At the end, it remains to be seen how these positive factors will evolve and help the deal to go through in this coming week. But if the deal fails to get through this time, it does not mean the end of the road.
The first and the second reason above are enough to convince everyone that the deal will return for reconsideration to the new Congress in early 2007. The essence of the agreement, which envisages closer co-operation between the US and India will neither die nor be rejected by the new Democrat-dominated US Congress. To recall the words by Tom Lantos, “It is my strong hope that we can have the bill on the House floor in July, and then, with House passage, we will have opened a new era in United States-India relations.” The deal might just get delayed, perhaps.
Labels: Indian Nuclear
blog by Mas Qisa'i at 1:37:00 AM
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