A Left Hand Drive?
Last week, Assembly elections were held in several parts of India. From Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Pondichery to Kerala elections were held to elect new State governments. And apart from Assam and Pondichery, the Congress Party lost the elections. The Left won big in West Bengal and Kerala while in Tamil Nadu, even though the DMK unseated the incumbent Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK thus a return of the veteran Karunanidhi as the most powerful person in Tamil Nadu, the Left also increased its share of votes.
For the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government led by the Congress Party in the Center, the big wins by its allies gave some mix feelings. First, the win would mean the strengthening of the UPA government in the Center. It strengthens the position of the secular forces. At the same time, it also indicates the credible success of the UPA government in the Center. People voted for reforms and the UPA represents this spirit.
Secondly, the win by these allies sent a very strong message to the Congress Party that their allies can no longer be ignored in formulating and implementing government policies. The Congress-led UPA government would now have to stick to the CMP (Common Minimum Program) or else a deviation from it would mean an earthquake to the government. Sitaram Yechury, a politburo member of the CPI (M), echoed this second message through his confident comment in the post-elections that “the Left’s influence on the UPA alliance is bound to increase.”
A Left hand drive?
Since the establishment of the UPA government in New Delhi in 2004, the Left parties have been playing a crucial role. With a significant number of MPs in the Parliament, the Left gave an outside support to the Congress-led government on the basis of a CMP thus creating a majority power in the Parliament. Outside support means that the Left parties will not join and be a part of the government but will guarantee the majority of the alliance in the Parliament. This also means that if the Left parties decide to pull out its outside support in any given time, the UPA government would lose the majority number thus the break up of the government. As long as the CMP is adhered to, there would not be any likelihood of this scenario.
But the question now is how far the win by the Congress allies in the Assembly elections at the cost of the Congress Party would affect the unity in, and the functioning of, the UPA? Would this mean that the UPA would switch into a Left hand drive? Or would there be no effect on the UPA? Because even though the Congress Party is the single biggest party in the alliance but the support of the Left parties is crucial to keep the majority in the Parliament.
The most likely answer to these questions is that the Left parties, and the DMK of Tamil Nadu as a part of the alliance in the Center, would have more say on the formulation of new policies in the Center but at the same time the urgency to keep the communal forces out of power would mean the possibility of breaking out at the minimum. It strengthens the UPA while effecting some bargaining power in the decision making process. The Congress can no longer ignore their voices and strict adherent to the CMP would be observed to keep the alliance intact.
The negative response shown by the stock market immediately after the victory remark by the Left leader, however, should not be seen as a bad omen. It was just a sudden jolt with no long-term effect. Because even though the Left won big in these states, but reform was the promise in the elections. The Left in these states like Buddhadep Bhattacharya of West Bengal was a reform minded leader who does not shy away from liberalism, pro-capitalism and industry-friendly policies. The reforms promised by the UPA government would not be much affected by this new development.
Finally, the Assembly elections in these states can be seen as wake up calls for the Congress Party. Because even though the leadership in the Center in the form of Sonia Gandhi enjoys relative number of support, but locally, it is lacking of charismatic leaders capable of reinventing the grand old party. The elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal next year should become a matter of concern for the Congress leadership. Failure by the Congress Party to retain power in last three states above would mean a dwindling influence of the Party in the national politics and the emerging domination and influence of regional forces. Furthermore, the possible lost of the Congress in these up coming elections would also mean an irreversible Left hand drive in the Center.
For the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government led by the Congress Party in the Center, the big wins by its allies gave some mix feelings. First, the win would mean the strengthening of the UPA government in the Center. It strengthens the position of the secular forces. At the same time, it also indicates the credible success of the UPA government in the Center. People voted for reforms and the UPA represents this spirit.
Secondly, the win by these allies sent a very strong message to the Congress Party that their allies can no longer be ignored in formulating and implementing government policies. The Congress-led UPA government would now have to stick to the CMP (Common Minimum Program) or else a deviation from it would mean an earthquake to the government. Sitaram Yechury, a politburo member of the CPI (M), echoed this second message through his confident comment in the post-elections that “the Left’s influence on the UPA alliance is bound to increase.”
A Left hand drive?
Since the establishment of the UPA government in New Delhi in 2004, the Left parties have been playing a crucial role. With a significant number of MPs in the Parliament, the Left gave an outside support to the Congress-led government on the basis of a CMP thus creating a majority power in the Parliament. Outside support means that the Left parties will not join and be a part of the government but will guarantee the majority of the alliance in the Parliament. This also means that if the Left parties decide to pull out its outside support in any given time, the UPA government would lose the majority number thus the break up of the government. As long as the CMP is adhered to, there would not be any likelihood of this scenario.
But the question now is how far the win by the Congress allies in the Assembly elections at the cost of the Congress Party would affect the unity in, and the functioning of, the UPA? Would this mean that the UPA would switch into a Left hand drive? Or would there be no effect on the UPA? Because even though the Congress Party is the single biggest party in the alliance but the support of the Left parties is crucial to keep the majority in the Parliament.
The most likely answer to these questions is that the Left parties, and the DMK of Tamil Nadu as a part of the alliance in the Center, would have more say on the formulation of new policies in the Center but at the same time the urgency to keep the communal forces out of power would mean the possibility of breaking out at the minimum. It strengthens the UPA while effecting some bargaining power in the decision making process. The Congress can no longer ignore their voices and strict adherent to the CMP would be observed to keep the alliance intact.
The negative response shown by the stock market immediately after the victory remark by the Left leader, however, should not be seen as a bad omen. It was just a sudden jolt with no long-term effect. Because even though the Left won big in these states, but reform was the promise in the elections. The Left in these states like Buddhadep Bhattacharya of West Bengal was a reform minded leader who does not shy away from liberalism, pro-capitalism and industry-friendly policies. The reforms promised by the UPA government would not be much affected by this new development.
Finally, the Assembly elections in these states can be seen as wake up calls for the Congress Party. Because even though the leadership in the Center in the form of Sonia Gandhi enjoys relative number of support, but locally, it is lacking of charismatic leaders capable of reinventing the grand old party. The elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal next year should become a matter of concern for the Congress leadership. Failure by the Congress Party to retain power in last three states above would mean a dwindling influence of the Party in the national politics and the emerging domination and influence of regional forces. Furthermore, the possible lost of the Congress in these up coming elections would also mean an irreversible Left hand drive in the Center.
Labels: politik
blog by Mas Qisa'i at 12:45:00 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home for More Stories