Havana Meeting: A Potential Breakthrough?
The NAM summit in Havana, Cuba has just recently been concluded. Moderation, harmony, and reason are the new moods echoed by the NAM member states in the post summit. Condemnation against all acts of terrorism, focus on poverty alleviation as well as full support to Iran’s program to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes are other important points to consider by the movement. The absence of Fidel Castro in this summit did not dampen the spirit of renewal of NAM in the new world. And it is in this new spirit that the meeting between leaders of two nuclear powers in South Asia in the sideline of the NAM summit raised some hope as well as doubt to the future of peace in the region.
PM Manmohan Singh of India and President General Musharraf of Pakistan met for about one hour to discuss bilateral matters between the two countries. Described as a fruitful and successful meeting by the two leaders, many, however, still wonder whether this meeting will really lead into any meaningful results in the future. With the roller coaster history of the “fruitful meetings” between the two countries in the past few years, optimism and doubt fill up the atmosphere in the region. The detailed, round the clock media attention to this meeting has only added to this situation. Thus, it remains to be seen whether this Havana meeting is really having a potential for any breakthrough for the future of Indo-Pak relation.
Let’s take a closer look at the roller coaster history of the “fruitful meetings” between the leaders of the two nations in the past few years.
In April 2003, PM AB Vajpayee of India extended a “hand of friendship” to President Musharraf of Pakistan after a low in their bilateral relationship due to Indian Parliament attack and Kargil war. This was followed by the announcement of confidence-building measures that was followed by the ceasefire along the International Border, the Line of Control and Siachen in October 2003. The subsequent joint statement between the two leaders on the sideline of SAARC summit in Islamabad saw a new commitment from Pakistan to not allow its territory to be used for any act of terrorism against India. This commitment saw an eventual launch of the revival of the bilateral composite dialogue process between the two neighbors.
The change of guard in New Delhi in summer 2004 did not affect the willingness of New Delhi to engage Pakistan more closely. Ever since PM Manmohan Singh of the UPA took over the mantle of power from AB Vajpayee of the NDA government, there have been four summits between Singh and Musharraf: September 2004, April 2005, September 2005 and the latest was in September 2006 in Havana.
The September 2004 summit led to the increasing efforts to create closer people-to-people contacts and make boundaries in the disputed areas of Kashmir irrelevant. The April 2005 meeting between Singh and Musharraf in New Delhi resulted in the revival of the bilateral Joint Commission at which economic and social cooperation reappeared on the bilateral agenda. It also saw a definite decline in terrorist infiltration. The April 2005 meeting also marked the launch of the Srinagar – Muzaffarabad bus service to promote closer people-to-people contacts.
Even though there was a summit in September 2005 in New York on the sideline of the UN General Assembly meeting, but it was rendered for the peace process between India and Pakistan to move forward. The subsequent Diwali-eve bomb blasts in Delhi, the attack on the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, the Varanasi blasts followed by the July 2006 Mumbai serial train blasts have slowed down the pace, or even stalled, the peace process completely. India pointed its fingers to Pakistan for all these terror attacks called off a proposed meeting of Foreign Secretaries of the two countries. It is on the basis of these realities that many have seen that the recently concluded summit in Havana as a promising start for improving Indo-Pak relation.
Described as a “major achievement”, the most significant aspect of the meeting is a return to the primacy of terrorism and the need to ensure that violence does not derail the peace process with a bilateral mechanism to fight terrorism. The two leaders decided to set up a joint working group to identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives and investigations. This plan makes it possible to go ahead with resumption of the bilateral composite dialogue process. Meeting of foreign secretaries has been planned next month in New Delhi.
Will this prove to be a breakthrough in Indo-Pak relations? Or will it turn out to be yet another instance of Pakistani one-upmanship vis-à-vis India?
Given the facts above and the admission of General Musharraf recently to European leaders in Brussels that he rejected all allegations that his country was connected to terrorism and that if there was any terrorism out of Pakistan it could be the works of freelance terrorists who might be operating on their own, and he could not do anything about that, it would be normal for New Delhi to be worried and skeptic to any meaningful result of this “major achievement”. Furthermore, the recorded roller coaster history of Indo-Pak relation does not guarantee that such plan would completely tenable.
But to recall what Musharraf said in an interview to Indian Frontline magazine recently, he noted – with candor that: “Over the last years, our intelligence agencies have been operating against each other... let me talk frankly… this is the reality that we have seen over the last 50 years… my experience is that there is a lack of trust… we should have trust in each other.”
True that the lack of trust is the major blockade in Indo-Pak relation. Building a sustainable trust with each other will prove very important for the two countries to move forward. Pakistan has acknowledged this aspect and agreed implicitly to change a policy of state it has clung to for decades. It is for India to decide the next course of action. The ball is really in India's court. The Manmohan Singh Government should seize the opportunity with both hands and fast-track resolution of the unwanted disputes should be resolved in the near future.
Thus, given this fact and the momentum built up in Havana, it will only be reasonable to expect the Foreign Secretaries of India and Pakistan to make significant progress towards a breakthrough on the issues concerning the two countries when they meet in New Delhi next month. The Havana meeting is surely has a path-breaking potential for improving Indo-Pak relation. But until Pakistan demonstrates its credibility and at the same time India shows its maturity in dealing with its neighbor, progress will be difficult to be made. Until then, Havana meeting is to be welcomed optimistically, but very cautiously.
PM Manmohan Singh of India and President General Musharraf of Pakistan met for about one hour to discuss bilateral matters between the two countries. Described as a fruitful and successful meeting by the two leaders, many, however, still wonder whether this meeting will really lead into any meaningful results in the future. With the roller coaster history of the “fruitful meetings” between the two countries in the past few years, optimism and doubt fill up the atmosphere in the region. The detailed, round the clock media attention to this meeting has only added to this situation. Thus, it remains to be seen whether this Havana meeting is really having a potential for any breakthrough for the future of Indo-Pak relation.
Let’s take a closer look at the roller coaster history of the “fruitful meetings” between the leaders of the two nations in the past few years.
In April 2003, PM AB Vajpayee of India extended a “hand of friendship” to President Musharraf of Pakistan after a low in their bilateral relationship due to Indian Parliament attack and Kargil war. This was followed by the announcement of confidence-building measures that was followed by the ceasefire along the International Border, the Line of Control and Siachen in October 2003. The subsequent joint statement between the two leaders on the sideline of SAARC summit in Islamabad saw a new commitment from Pakistan to not allow its territory to be used for any act of terrorism against India. This commitment saw an eventual launch of the revival of the bilateral composite dialogue process between the two neighbors.
The change of guard in New Delhi in summer 2004 did not affect the willingness of New Delhi to engage Pakistan more closely. Ever since PM Manmohan Singh of the UPA took over the mantle of power from AB Vajpayee of the NDA government, there have been four summits between Singh and Musharraf: September 2004, April 2005, September 2005 and the latest was in September 2006 in Havana.
The September 2004 summit led to the increasing efforts to create closer people-to-people contacts and make boundaries in the disputed areas of Kashmir irrelevant. The April 2005 meeting between Singh and Musharraf in New Delhi resulted in the revival of the bilateral Joint Commission at which economic and social cooperation reappeared on the bilateral agenda. It also saw a definite decline in terrorist infiltration. The April 2005 meeting also marked the launch of the Srinagar – Muzaffarabad bus service to promote closer people-to-people contacts.
Even though there was a summit in September 2005 in New York on the sideline of the UN General Assembly meeting, but it was rendered for the peace process between India and Pakistan to move forward. The subsequent Diwali-eve bomb blasts in Delhi, the attack on the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, the Varanasi blasts followed by the July 2006 Mumbai serial train blasts have slowed down the pace, or even stalled, the peace process completely. India pointed its fingers to Pakistan for all these terror attacks called off a proposed meeting of Foreign Secretaries of the two countries. It is on the basis of these realities that many have seen that the recently concluded summit in Havana as a promising start for improving Indo-Pak relation.
Described as a “major achievement”, the most significant aspect of the meeting is a return to the primacy of terrorism and the need to ensure that violence does not derail the peace process with a bilateral mechanism to fight terrorism. The two leaders decided to set up a joint working group to identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives and investigations. This plan makes it possible to go ahead with resumption of the bilateral composite dialogue process. Meeting of foreign secretaries has been planned next month in New Delhi.
Will this prove to be a breakthrough in Indo-Pak relations? Or will it turn out to be yet another instance of Pakistani one-upmanship vis-à-vis India?
Given the facts above and the admission of General Musharraf recently to European leaders in Brussels that he rejected all allegations that his country was connected to terrorism and that if there was any terrorism out of Pakistan it could be the works of freelance terrorists who might be operating on their own, and he could not do anything about that, it would be normal for New Delhi to be worried and skeptic to any meaningful result of this “major achievement”. Furthermore, the recorded roller coaster history of Indo-Pak relation does not guarantee that such plan would completely tenable.
But to recall what Musharraf said in an interview to Indian Frontline magazine recently, he noted – with candor that: “Over the last years, our intelligence agencies have been operating against each other... let me talk frankly… this is the reality that we have seen over the last 50 years… my experience is that there is a lack of trust… we should have trust in each other.”
True that the lack of trust is the major blockade in Indo-Pak relation. Building a sustainable trust with each other will prove very important for the two countries to move forward. Pakistan has acknowledged this aspect and agreed implicitly to change a policy of state it has clung to for decades. It is for India to decide the next course of action. The ball is really in India's court. The Manmohan Singh Government should seize the opportunity with both hands and fast-track resolution of the unwanted disputes should be resolved in the near future.
Thus, given this fact and the momentum built up in Havana, it will only be reasonable to expect the Foreign Secretaries of India and Pakistan to make significant progress towards a breakthrough on the issues concerning the two countries when they meet in New Delhi next month. The Havana meeting is surely has a path-breaking potential for improving Indo-Pak relation. But until Pakistan demonstrates its credibility and at the same time India shows its maturity in dealing with its neighbor, progress will be difficult to be made. Until then, Havana meeting is to be welcomed optimistically, but very cautiously.
Labels: indo-pak
blog by Mas Qisa'i at 12:09:00 AM
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