India should get a better deal

The failure to get the nod from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in Vienna for the Indo-US nuclear agreement has not made India and the US governments worried that this “historic deal” will not go through. Too much has been at stake to see this deal at its present situation and there is still an opportunity to get the needed approval.

In India, the pull out by the Left parties from the United Progressive Alliance last July has threatened the survival of the Congress-led government in New Delhi. Arguing that the nuclear deal with the US is bad for India, it shook the four year long alliance. However, with the leadership quality shown by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and full support from his Congress party and its allies, the UPA government survived the no confidence motion.

PM Singh succeeded in convincing his fellow legislators that the deal is good and very important for India’s future. He argued that India’s insatiable needs for clean energy to support its ever growing economic development can be fulfilled through this deal. Furthermore, Indian nuclear technology, the peaceful nuclear technology, will become more advanced with the possibility of transfer of knowledge and technology.

The UPA won the majority of support to continue its term in office until next summer.

In the US, the Bush administration has been working relentlessly to convince the Congress that the nuclear deal with India is good for both sides. Apart from inching in on a strategic objective of balancing power equation in Asia, the Bush administration believes that the deal will bring billions of fortunes for America’s companies. With the superior nuclear technology at hand, the US will be able to benefit more than it can expect. Besides, this deal will become a legacy for President Bush once he leaves the office later this year.

The journey for this deal has, however, not finished yet. It needs the stamps and endorsement from the IAEA and the NSG before any of those above benefits could be achieved.

In the first week of August 2008, the IAEA gave its endorsement to India’s safeguards pact. It was a relief for both parties since one hurdle has been passed successfully. But the last and final hurdle still needs to be dealt with: the NSG.

The NSG consists of 45 countries which has great concern with reducing nuclear proliferation by controlling the export and re-transfer of materials that may be applicable to nuclear weapon development and by improving safeguards and protection on existing materials. Thus having studied the Indo-US nuclear deal document submitted by India and the US, the NSG met last month and decided to reject it.

They insisted on the maintenance of the status quo.

The concerns by the NSG are on issues related to the existing nuclear testing moratorium, no export of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology, and conforming to nonproliferation agreements like the IAEA Additional Protocol and Missile Technology Control Regime.

However, the NSG still gave the deal a lifeline. They asked the two governments to revise the document and on 4 – 5 September 2008 they will re-convene and discuss the revised format of the Indo-US nuclear deal document.

India’s current status as a non-signatory to the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is another stumbling block for this agreement to get formal approval from the NSG. India, along with Pakistan, North Korea and Israel, are nuclear capable countries that do not sign the NPT. Exemption to India would deteriorate the status of the NPT.

It is up to the Indo-US team to come up with a better format of the document which shall satisfy the NSG.

In my opinion, even though critics of this deal argue that the deal is bad for the future of NPT and the balance of power in the international system, the deal should go through and the NSG should have no objection to this deal.

NPT is discriminatory and India’s history in dealing with nuclear technology, its strict adherence to the principle of no first use for its nuclear arsenal, its vibrant democracy in which the military is under the firm control of the civilian government and its insatiable need for clean energy to support its growing economy should make enough reasons for India to deserve a better deal.

Rejection to the deal is a perpetuation of discriminatory approach to nuclear technology and the rejection to establishment of equality in the international system.

The Meeting of Two Asian Giants: Part II

Earlier this week, the leaders of two Asian giants met in Beijing to further boost their growing bilateral tie. Indian PM Manmohan Singh was on a three day official visit to China, 13 – 15 January 2008. This was the first visit by an Indian PM after five years and the fifth in the history of India – China relations. The last visit by an Indian PM to China was by PM Atal Behari Vajpayee in June 2003. PM Singh’s visit to China signified the new chapter of Indo-China relationship.

Significant improvements have been achieved by the two sides since the signing of a wide range of strategy to improve their bilateral ties in commercial, political and strategic areas in New Delhi in 2006. But there are also points of concern related to the Indo – China bilateral tie.

According to PM Singh, the bilateral trade with China has doubled in the last two years. The trade target of $20 billion set by 2008 was reached two years ahead of schedule (it has touched $38.6 billion in 2007) and the revised target of $40 billion by 2010 was likely to be achieved two years in advance. Furthermore, the two leaders agreed to mandate their commerce ministers to explore the possibility of commencing negotiations on a "high quality" Regional Trading Arrangement.

On political and strategic fronts, significant improvements have also been achieved in the last two years. Taking forward their 2006 accord, the two countries pledged to promote bilateral cooperation in civil nuclear energy, consistent with their respective international commitments. The Chinese also agreed to consider a visit to India by the head of their atomic energy agency. At the same time, China supported India’s aspirations to play a role in the UN, including in the UN Security Council.

On border issue, the two sides agreed to building a "boundary of peace and friendship" on the basis of the April 2005 agreement on political parameters and guiding principles to approach the dispute. The special representatives (dealing with the border issue) shall complete at an early date the task of arriving at an agreed framework of settlement on the basis of that agreement.

On the issue of climate change, they agreed to work closely to tackle global warming and emphasized the importance of tackling the issue as per the UN convention and Kyoto protocol, in particular the principle of common, but differentiated responsibilities.

Some points of concern, however, need to be elaborated here. Even though the two sides agreed to building a boundary of peace and friendship on the basis of April 2005 agreement, but it will not guarantee that the problem will soon be solved, especially in the current term of the Congress-led UPA government. The Special Representative-level talks agreed in 2006, which have gone through 11 rounds, made very slow progress.

But what has been clear from the time of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s breakthrough visit to China in December 1988 is that a boundary settlement can come only through give and take, by whatever name called. ‘Giving’ large areas of territory held, or agreeing to significant transfers of population across the line of actual control (LAC), will not be politically feasible in either country. Thus, considering the seeming intractability of this dispute, the creative breakthrough was the political accord reached during the 1988 visit on the impermissibility of using force to alter the status quo along the LAC. This accord was subsequently formalised and firmed up and, in the words of the 2006 Joint Declaration, “pending resolution of the boundary question, both sides shall maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas in accordance with the agreements of 1993, 1996 and 2003.”

Secondly, even though the Chinese has agreed to support India’s thirst of energy sources and considered a visit to India by the head of their atomic energy agency, but this does not guarantee that the Indo – US nuclear deal will go through smoothly, especially on the issue of importing nuclear materials from the NSG.

Finally, China’s statement that India has a role to play in the reformed United Nations, including the Security Council, cannot be seen as support for India’s claim to a permanent seat in the UNSC. But it is clear that both sides want to maximise bilateral relations.

Thus, it can be concluded that this part two meeting of two Asian giants had shown tremendous improvement, especially on the economic front while at the same time, some concern and patient should be on India’s mind if it wants to pursue its ambition in international arena and in atomic energy sector. Similarly, a more realistic and practical approach shoud be taken by India in order to solve its boundary issue with China, a delicate job for PM Singh and the Indian government.

Beyond Defense Cooperation

Early this week, Indian Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, was on a four-day Southeast Asian tour. The destinations were Indonesia and Singapore with the enhancement of defense, economic and trade cooperation on his agenda.

In Indonesia, he co-chaired the third Indonesia-India Joint Commission (JCM) meeting along with his Indonesian counterpart Hassan Wirayuda. It was a routine meeting between the two countries’ officials to review the entire gamut of relations and make plans to enhance them. Usually, the outcome of such a meeting is rarely visible on the field. But this time, it is different.

On defense cooperation, the recent ratification of defense cooperation agreement by the Indonesian parliament has paved the way for future strategic cooperation between the two countries. The first ever meeting of a Joint Committee for India – Indonesia Defense Cooperation in Jakarta on 12 – 14 June 2007 was one of the results from this agreement. Joint training of defense personnel and the stepping up of maritime security of the vital and strategic Straits of Malacca are also on the table. Moreover, the two countries agreed to jointly produce military equipments in the future.

In trade, the two countries agreed to maximize their efforts to erase any barriers that might hamper their bilateral trade. With India’s steady economic growth of 8 to 8.5 percent per year and an improving Indonesian economy, the two countries agreed to double their bilateral trade to $10 billion by 2010 from the current level of 4.7 billion. This is not a difficult to achieve given growing interest of business community in each other's country.

The Indian government also offered to rebuild the historic Hindu Prambanan Temple damaged by Yogyakarta earthquake last year. The two countries also agreed to enhance tourism industry cooperation. They agreed to ease visa regulation for Indian and Indonesian nationals. The Indonesian government has even taken a step ahead by including Indian passport holders in the list of visa on arrival policy last year.

Besides defense and trade, the meeting also discussed the possibility of cementing cooperation on Special Economic Zone, development of alternative energy, mutual legal assistance on crimes and extradition treaty, biotechnology and women empowerment programs.

Discussions on IT, health, pharmaceuticals, nuclear technology, and the future of India – Indonesia space cooperation, especially after the establishment of Second Telemetry Tracking and Command Center in Biak and the launch of LAPAN TUBSAT Micro satellite using India’s rocket launcher last January 2007 were also held during Pranab’s visit to Jakarta.

A Memorandum of Understanding on the establishment of a Vocational Training Center in Aceh, specializing on construction, was also signed in this visit.

For India, Indonesia is a key strategic partner of India in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). By its sheer size as the biggest country in the region Indonesia is a magnet for investment. Investors from the US, Europe, China, East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea are competing to invest in Indonesia. And for that reason, India as an emerging global power does not want to be left behind. With the new spirit of Look-East Policy, India is engaging its eastern neighbors, the Southeast Asian region, more seriously.

Similarly, the “New Strategic India – Indonesia Partnership” agreement signed by President Yudhoyono and PM Manmohan Singh in New Delhi two years ago is finally yielding some fruits. Tata, Bajaj, TVs, Mittal Steel, Essar Hutchinson are now coming to Indonesia while Indonesian pilots are flying Indian planes in India’s airspace. Moreover, with India’s booming information technology industry, pharmaceuticals, outsourcing and manufacturing sectors, strong services as well as a spending-hungry middle class, India should emerge as an attractive place for Indonesian businesses to make money.

To conclude, Indonesia is the heavyweight in the Southeast Asian region and is now coming out of its internal crisis. India is an emerging global power in Asia with the potential of balancing the Chinese domination in the region. Thus it is very sensible and useful for both countries to strengthen strategic, political and economic ties. Defense is not the only important cooperation that needs to be enhanced. A better, complete, multi-faceted bilateral relationship between India and Indonesia should be the main target of the two governments.

Learning from India’s experience

Earlier this month, a delegation of Indonesian defense officials was touring Pakistan and China to conclude comprehensive defense cooperation with the two countries. This is the first kind of defense cooperation signed by Indonesia with foreign countries that would allow Indonesia to procure military hardware and materials as well as exchange of defense knowledge and technology. This deal would help Indonesian government in improving its defense system.

In line with this development, Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) has finally agreed to ratify the Memorandum of Understanding in Defense Cooperation between India and Indonesia signed in New Delhi, on 11 January 2001. Contrary to the five-years time taken by the DPR to ratify this important MoU, the Indian government has ratified the MoU immediately after its signing by the then Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid and India’s PM AB Vajpayee.

Even though Chinese defense technology and industry is far superior than the Indian’s, but considering the progress achieved by India in the field of defense system over the years, it is such a strange phenomenon that Indonesia took the whole of five-years to finally decide that the MoU is worth of being converted into a working defense agreement. India’s ability to access Russian, European, Israeli and now US technologies, is something that needs some consideration.

At the same time, it is also important to note here that besides the immense progress achieved by India in the field of defense over the years India has also become an important market and partner for development ever since it opened its market in the late 1990s. Its thriving economy and democracy became a success story that development and democracy can go hand in hand.

India's founding fathers have done a great job in ensuring India's capability to stand on its own through the adoption of the concept of swadeshi (self-fulfillment). From education to economy, defense to development, India has cemented this spirit successfully in the minds of its people.

In developing its defense technology and military hardware, India adopted the concept of independence. The Indian Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Defense Public Sector Units (PSUs) become the backbone in this process. Through close partnership with foreign countries such as the former Soviet Union (now with Russia), India succeeded in transforming itself from a buyer into a builder and developer of defense technology and military hardware. The self-reliance process, through cultivating India's own resources over the years, proved to be very effective in this transformation.

The successful launching of an indigenously built short-range air-to-air Astra missile early this month and the latest Agni series, Agni-III a nuclear-capable ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers, last Thursday proved the improving capability of Indian defense system. India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) under an Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme launched in 1983 has successfully developed the technology.

India's success story in developing a self-reliance system has finally impressed Indonesian leadership to take realistic actions. The ratification of the MOU on limited defense cooperation has opened an opportunity for Indonesia to expand its defense cooperation. It has become a starting point to rebuild Indonesia's defense technology and military hardware.

Having concluded the defense agreement with Pakistan and China that would allow the transfer of military hardware and technology between Indonesia and the two countries, the ratification of the MoU with India would also allow the procurement of military hardware. The interest shown by Indonesian Navy Commander Admiral Slamet Soebijanto to acquire India’s ship-to-land supersonic cruise missile Brahmos on his recent visit to India proves the importance of having better defense cooperation with India.

It is no secret that both India and Indonesia have long been involved in an exchange program for their military officers. Both Indonesian and Indian Navies have been maintaining very close cooperation over the past few years and have been participated in bilateral as well as multilateral exercises in Andaman seas, Malacca Straits as well as in waters off the Indian coast. Thus the ratification of the MoU and the plan to acquire the Brahmos from India could be seen as a good sign for an improving bilateral relationship.

India is a fast emerging power both economically and militarily. Despite the oddities found in India (urban India) and Bharat (rural India), India as a country is improving each day. International attention is now on India, a self-declared nuclear country with thriving economy and vibrant democracy. Indonesia can learn a lot from India’s experiences. Especially on defense technology, Indonesia can emulate what India has done so far: indigenization of foreign technology for local use. At the same time, workable regional security cooperation can also be built through this process. The Indonesian leadership should chalk out long-term objectives to create self-reliance in the country, a model for future Indonesia.

Hu’s India Visit: The Merging of Asian Giants

This week, the two Asian giants, India and China, are in a mood to move forward together and leave the bitter past behind. President Hu Jintao of China is in a four-day India visit from November 20 to November 24, 2006. This is the first visit in ten years by a Chinese President after the historic visit of President Jiang Zemin in 1997 and many considers the visit as symbolically significant, an effort to revive the Hindi – Chini, Bhai – Bhai (India – China are brothers) spirit of the 1950s.

President Hu’s visit comes at a time when India – China cooperation is at a historic high and the two giants want to assure each other that they are partners and not competitors. Even though there is no extraordinary breakthrough in this meeting, but there are significant improvements for the two giants to move forward as partners. The two countries agreed on Tuesday in New Delhi to sign a wide range of strategy to improve their bilateral ties in commercial, political and strategic areas.

Commercially, the two countries agreed to double bilateral trade to $40 billion by 2010 and a task force will be instituted to study the feasibility of an India – China Regional Trading Arrangement. At the same time, a Chinese consulate will be set up in Kolkata and an Indian one in Guangzhou in order to facilitate the people to people contact and business dealings. The consulates will give China access to Northeast India and India to Southeast China. Quoting Manoranjan Mohanty of Institute of Chinese Studies, the agreement is “important for India’s look east and China’s look west policies.”

Border issue that has been the bone of contention between the two giants were also being discussed in which the two countries agreed to settle the vexed border issue through the establishment of special representatives that will accelerate progress towards a deal that will solve the issue. A hotline between the Indian and Chinese foreign ministers will soon be established as an effort to build closer relationship and to quell any misunderstanding between the two countries.

Energy cooperation was also in the agenda in which the two countries decided to promote civil nuclear cooperation. In the backdrop of the India – US nuclear agreement, India is hoping that China, a key member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, will extend its support to India’s growing need of energy through nuclear technology. Having secured the support from Russia and the US for India’s nuclear ambition through civil nuclear cooperation, an additional support from China will only complement India’s confidence to satisfy its energy need in the coming decades through nuclear technology.

On the fight against terrorism front, India and China agreed to revitalize and broaden the India – China Dialogue Mechanism on Counter-Terrorism to jointly combat terrorism, separatism and extremism and the linkages between terrorism and organized crime.

President Kalam remarked that President Hu’s visit is a milestone in India – China bilateral relations. He further said that the bilateral relations will continue to flourish and grow in the years to come in multiple fields. The positive trends in India – China relations promoted harmony in the region. Expressing similar confidence, former Indian Ambassador to China, C.V. Ranganathan, said that the joint statements like the one expressed on Tuesday could become programs for action to keep up the high level of momentum in India – China relations in various fields. It is an affirmation by the two countries that they are committed to deepen and diversify relations.

However, there are still voices of concern over these positive notes. One such voice is the concern over China’s lukewarm response to India’s ambitious aspirations for civil nuclear technology to satisfy its increasing energy needs. According to Bharat Karnad of Center for Policy Research, the clause about a civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries in the joint declaration does not mean that China will facilitate a consensus at the NSG in India’s favor (decision in the NSG is taken through consensus, not by vote). In fact, according to him, it will probably not: it is a political maneuver by the Chinese in the face of the India – US nuclear deal. China has nothing other than uranium to give India whereas India can offer China its technology.

On the resolution of the boundary issue, Karnad said that it is a mere lip service, adding that the status quo will stay. The statement by Chinese Ambassador for India on the border issue, his claim over the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh as an integral part of China, in an interview on a private TV channel days before the visit only adds to this skepticism. The recent opening of Nathu La to make border irrelevant is one thing, and the Chinese claim over Arunachal Pradesh is something else.

Similarly, on India’s candidature for a permanent seat on the UNSC. China said that it attaches great importance to the status of India in international affairs. It understands and supports India’s aspirations to play a greater role in the UN. But – unlike Britain and France – China refused to come out openly to support India

Summing up this article, President Hu’s visit to India is of an important significant for India – China bilateral relation. Despite of their differences and the reluctance of either side on certain issues, India and China have finally departed from their decades old cold relations. The agreements signed by the two leaders on Tuesday showed that their differences will not hinder their aspiration to establish a closer partnership for a better future. Even though the P-word (Pakistan is China’s all weather ally and India’s sworn rival in South Asia) will remain in between but the fact that a cordial relationship between India and China “is of global and strategic significance,” there exist “bright prospects for their common development”. India and China “are not rivals or competitors but are partners for mutual benefit.”



Note:
Published as China and India: When Giants Merge in The Jakarta Post on Friday, 24 November 2006.

US Mid-Term Elections: End of Indo – US Nuclear Deal?

The long awaited verdict is finally out. This week’s US Congress midterm elections saw the Democrats won convincingly. They will control both the House and the Senate from next year. It is a return to controlling the Congress after the gap of 12 years. Democrats won the Senate with a clear majority of 51 seats against 49 seats won by the Republicans in a 100 seats Senate. Similarly, with 230 seats already been won in the House and led in two races, while Republicans won 196 seats and led in seven races, the most likely result in the 435 seats House would be a 232-203 majority for the Democrats.

The midterm elections became a referendum for President Bush and the voters have shown him the way. Every thing is different now for President Bush. The numbers above describe the changing balance in a new American Congress that will convene in January 2007. With the new composition in the Congress, there is possibility that the American foreign policies crafted out by President George W. Bush will be affected.

From Iraq war, the war on terror, North Korea’s nuclear issue to China policy, defeat by the Republicans means differently according to analysts. For Iraq war, it means a new approach to solve the Iraq quagmire has to be formulated sooner rather than later. The American public has become impatient and they want a change. On the war on terror and the North Korean nuclear issue, the rise of the Democrats will give hope to more dialogues and soliciting views rather than an emphasis on military intervention as favored by the conservative wing of the Republican Party.

On the other hand, according to David Zweig of Center on China’s Transnational Relations, Hong Kong, the Republican defeat means a weaker executive and a weaker executive means a weakening of America’s China policy. According to him, US – China relations do better when a President is strong, weak Presidents are no good for US – China relations.

These predictions and analyses, however, remain to be of a distant future. Even though there is now a change of guard in the American Congress, but there will be no change of policy overnight. The Democrats must take very cautious and step-by-step approach so as not to disappoint the voters who have cast their votes to reject President Bush. One thing is, however, of a very near future: the future of Indo – US nuclear agreement mooted in July 2005 and signed in March this year in New Delhi.

Will this new American Congress end the deal or will it help the deal to go through?

The Indo – US nuclear agreement has gone through various stages of detailed legislative consideration within the US over the last 16 months. As of now, the proposed bill cleared by the House of Representatives last July has three more steps before closure. First, a vote in the full Senate; later, reconciliation of the language of the bill as passed by the House and the Senate; and finally a vote in both legislative chambers. With the Democrats now controlling the Congress and the fact that a vote on the deal has been stuck in the Senate for the last two sessions where the Republicans were the majority, there is now some caution in New Delhi about the immediate future of this important deal. The so-called ‘Lame-Duck’ session of the Congress, which commences next week, must work very hard if it wants to see this deal through.

Most analysts in India, however, believe that the deal will likely to go through. There are several reasons for this optimistic view.

First, the core of the agreement among the supporters of the deal is a conviction that a closer relationship with India in the early part of the 21st century is in the abiding American interest. The nuclear area that had become a bone of bitter contestation was innovatively re-arranged to become an area of co-operation, even while respecting US non-proliferation sensitivities.

Second, even though the Democrats gained control of the US Congress riding an anti-Bush wave and some key opponents of the deal, who have argued that it undermines global non-proliferation efforts, have been among the Democrats, there was about 80 per cent support in the various Congressional committees over the last few months. Senior Democrats like Senator John Kerry and Congressman Tom Lantos have expressed their strong supports throughout this period. Moreover, in the post Tuesday’s triumph, there is a positive gesture from some key Democrat lawmakers on the nuclear deal.

Thus it would be misleading to infer that the agreement with India is a purely Republican affair.

Third, the assurance by President Bush that getting the India-US nuclear deal through the Senate next week is a priority. US Ambassador to India David C. Mulford echoed this view and said on Thursday that there was every intention to get the deal legislation through next week. Even though the upcoming Lame Duck session is hard to predict and other bills could be a priority, but with the very strong bipartisan support that had been expressed for the deal in last 24 hours, the deal will likely to go through.

At the end, it remains to be seen how these positive factors will evolve and help the deal to go through in this coming week. But if the deal fails to get through this time, it does not mean the end of the road.

The first and the second reason above are enough to convince everyone that the deal will return for reconsideration to the new Congress in early 2007. The essence of the agreement, which envisages closer co-operation between the US and India will neither die nor be rejected by the new Democrat-dominated US Congress. To recall the words by Tom Lantos, “It is my strong hope that we can have the bill on the House floor in July, and then, with House passage, we will have opened a new era in United States-India relations.” The deal might just get delayed, perhaps.